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My 2012 Prediction and 8 Dumb Reasons Obama Will Win

Well, I’ve done pretty decently the past couple years with predictions. I was right about Mitt Romney getting nominated, and Sarah Palin and Mike Huckabee not running. Paul Ryan was on my prediction list of VP picks for Romney (though not at the top). On the other hand, I was wrong about Rick Perry being a major contender (“Oops”). I also didn’t expect the race to be this close in the last month.

So with only two days left before the election is finally over, it’s time for me to submit my prediction for the final electoral map, and which states I think will go for Obama or Romney. The reason this is still fun for me, despite the tsunami of polling that takes place these days, is that modern polling is just good enough to give you a framework for what the results will look like, and just bad enough to never be right all the time. We can never be sure how the undecided voter’s coffee will taste on Tuesday, or which people that we thought were “likely voters” will pass by those booths filled with future-controlling destiny levers on their way home from work and think, “Meh.”

So without further ado, here is my prediction for how the map will look after all the dust has settled:

My prediction for 2012 presidential election

I’m least sure about Virginia and Colorado, but I’m going with my gut on Colorado and wishful thinking in Virginia. I just think Colorado’s demographics have been changing so much that it is on a much larger trend of breaking from its more conservative prairie home companions, and a well-established state Democratic Party along with control of the Governorship will also give Obama the kind of get-out-the-vote support that he needs.

Virginia, I’m not so sure. I recently watched the last presidential debate from a Confederate flag-bedecked bed and breakfast in the Shenandoah Valley, so maybe that’s coloring my opinion. But since 2008, the Governor of VA has changed from a good friend of Obama’s (Tim Kaine) to a dyed in the wool conservative who once supported legislation forcing rape victims to get vaginally probed by their doctor before an abortion (along with anyone else planning on one). So needless to say, there might be a little less local support there than before.

But I’m still confident Obama will win overall. Why? Hokey predicting mechanisms and superstitions, of course!

  1. Intrade Betting: Intrade.com lets people vote on real life predictions, and the results for major elections have been pretty accurate. The current standing? 64.7% betting on Obama and 35.2% betting on Romney.
  2. 7-11 cups: Patrons at 7-11 can choose red or blue cups for their coffee, signifying their support for either candidate. It has correctly “predicted” the last three elections, and right now Obama’s up with about 60% to Romney’s 40%.
  3. Height: Maybe this is why the election is so close. Apparently someone figured out that Americans almost always elect the taller candidate. Barack Obama is 6′ 1″ and Mitt Romney is  6′ 2″ – technically a win for Romney, but how do we know that extra inch isn’t just hair?
  4. Blinking: Apparently candidates that blink the most during the debates tend to lose, but the jury’s out on this race. Obama clocked in at 75 blinks a minute in the first debate compared to 55 blinks a minute for Romney. But these same body language gurus that were counting blinks never released numbers for the second two debates, only saying that Obama’s overall body language was a little better than Romney’s. Also of note: John McCain blinked 104 times a minute in 2008, while according to The Daily, Rick Perry blinked at a “near-reptilian rate” of 16 times per minute. So there’s that.
  5. Halloween Masks: Apparently Halloween mask sales of the candidates’ visage are a good indicator of which candidate will win that November. The twist? Americans actually buy the most masks of the face of the eventual winner. This year, more Obama masks were sold.
  6. The Redskins: Supposedly, whenever the Redskins lose their last home game before the election, it spells doom for the incumbent party, but whenever they win it, it’s happy sailing for the current White house resident or his friends. This prediction has held for every election since 1940. Every single one! Well, except for 2004, when Bush won reelection despite the Redskins losing, but I mean, he wasn’t supposed to be president anyway, right? The Redskins just lost to the Panthers a few hours ago, so this predictor goes to Romney. Either that, or this myth is the big loser in 2012…
  7. Scholastic student vote: Children are our future, and the future has spoken. Boom! Another four years.
  8. Astrology: Luckily for Obama, if there were any questions, a panel of astrologers unanimously predicted a victory for the President back in May. Too bad the world will end in December.

I’m just wondering why these Peruvian shamans are missing in action this year:

Peru's shamans send US election vibes












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